Later today, the football world turns its eyes toward Washington, D.C., where FIFA will conduct the draw for the largest World Cup in history. With 48 teams, 16 host cities, and 12 groups, the 2026 edition is already rewriting the rules of the global game — but while much remains undecided, a surprising amount is already locked in

Here’s NMTBP’s complete guide to what we know for certain, what we can reasonably expect, and how the World Cup’s geography will shape the tournament before a ball is even kicked

What we know for certain

Let’s start with the non-negotiables—the structural facts already set by FIFA

The three host nations are pre-assigned to specific groups and positions:

• Mexico → Group A (A1) – opens the World Cup at Estadio Azteca
• Canada → Group B (B1)
• United States → Group D (D1)

These cannot change. They are immovable anchors in the draw

Pot 1 is fully locked

Pot 1 contains the three hosts + the nine top-ranked qualified teams (based on FIFA’s 19 November 2025 rankings):

• Mexico, Canada, USA
• Spain, Argentina, France, England, Brazil, Portugal, Netherlands, Belgium, and Germany

Those 12 teams will headline Groups A–L.

Pots 2 and 3 are fully locked teams (based on FIFA’s 19 November 2025 rankings):

Pot 2 contains Croatia, Morocco, Colombia, Uruguay, Switzerland, Japan, Senegal, Iran,   South Korea, Ecuador, Austria, and Australia

Pot 3 contains Norway, Panama, Egypt, Algeria, Scotland, Paraguay, Tunisia, Ivory Coast, Uzbekistan, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, South Africa

Pot 4 is partially locked. We know six teams (based on positions in FIFA’s 19 November 2025 rankings), but not the remaining six, which playoffs will decide:

The six teams we know are Jordan, Cape Verde, Ghana, Curaçao, Haiti, and New Zealand

We know the playoff paths (but not their winners)

UEFA Playoff Paths (A–D)

Four winners qualify, each with a 4-team mini-bracket:

• Path A: Italy / Wales / N. Ireland / Bosnia
• Path B: Ukraine / Sweden / Poland / Albania
• Path C: Turkey / Romania / Slovakia / Kosovo
• Path D: Denmark / Czechia / Ireland / N. Macedonia

Inter-confederation Paths (1 & 2)

Two winners qualify:

• Pathway 1: DR Congo / Jamaica / New Caledonia
• Pathway 2: Iraq / Bolivia / Suriname

All six winners will go into Pot 4

We know the draw structure

Each group will contain:

• 1 team from Pot 1
• 1 team from Pot 2
• 1 team from Pot 3
• 1 team from Pot 4

There will be 12 groups in total (A → L), each with 4 teams

We know the confederation constraints

These rules dictate which teams can share a group:

• UEFA: maximum of 2 teams per group
• All other confederations: maximum 1 per group

That means:

• Brazil cannot be grouped with another South American country, e.g. Uruguay or Colombia
• Senegal cannot be grouped with another African country, e.g. Ghana or Tunisia
• Japan cannot be grouped with Asian federation countries, e.g. South Korea or Iran
• Mexico, the USA, and Canada cannot be grouped with any other CONCACAF team

These constraints determine where playoff winners can be placed

We know the host cities — and their clusters

FIFA has divided the 16 venues into three geographic clusters, which will heavily influence travel:

West Region

Los Angeles, San Francisco Bay, Seattle, Vancouver

Central Region

Dallas, Houston, Kansas City, Mexico City, Guadalajara, Monterrey

East Region

New York/New Jersey, Boston, Philadelphia, Miami, Toronto, Atlanta

Teams will be kept within their region for the entire group stage whenever possible.

This allows us to forecast a probable regional home for the remaining Pot 1 teams:

Likely Western groups

• USA,
• Brazil
• Spain
• Canada

Likely Central groups

• Mexico
• Netherlands
• Belgium
• Germany

Likely Eastern groups

• Argentina
• England (fingers firmly crossed!)
• France
• Portugal

Predictions: Playoff winners, Groups of Death & easy groups

Predicted Playoff Winners

UEFA

NMTBP’s picks:

• Path A: Italy
• Path B: Poland
• Path C: Turkey
• Path D: Denmark

Inter-confederation

• Pathway 1: DR Congo (athleticism + rising continentally)
• Pathway 2: Iraq (superb Asian qualifying form)

With teams like Croatia, Morocco, Senegal and Colombia in Pot 2 and Norway (in particular!), Egypt and Saudi Arabia in Pot 3, Ivory Coast and potentially Italy, Denmark and Poland in Pot 4, there is enormous potential for several Groups of Death

These happen when a strong Pot 4 team (especially Italy or Denmark) collides with a European giant plus a strong Pot 2 side

Being pessimists (or is it realists?) NMTBP predicts the following will be one Group of Death – England, Senegal or Colombia, Norway, Ghana

We expect the USA, Argentina and Brazil to ‘somehow’ get easy Groups:

USA, Australia, Uzbekistan, Jordan

Argentina, Austria, Scotland, Cape Verde

Brazil, Iran, Panama, Pathway 1 winner

Being a Pot 3 seed, Scotland will inevitably get a tough group. Possibly:

Spain, Colombia or Senegal, Scotland, 

Conclusion: A World Cup unlike any before it

Even before the draw takes place, the 2026 World Cup already promises:

• The biggest geographic footprint ever
• The largest number of elite teams EVER concentrated in the first pot
• The strongest Pot 4 in the tournament’s history
• The fairest travel distribution ever attempted by FIFA
• Three hosts whose starting positions are already fixed

When the draw happens later today, only the names will change — the structure, the constraints, and the geographic realities are already firmly in place.

And with Ghana, Italy, Denmark, Turkey and Poland looming in Pot 4, the draw may deliver not just one Group of Death, but several!